Circa Grandissimo 2026 · $100,000 entry · · · exact per-entry inventories · field behaviour fitted to this contest's own picks
Distinct over the legs that still matter (you and at least one opponent alive with ≥2% probability). Later legs are placeholders you will re-plan.
Run the analysis to see this week's decision table, the highest-EV paths and the projected field.
Everything the simulator consumes is editable here. Blank cells use the embedded PoolGenius/ETR grids and the fitted field model; filled cells override them and are highlighted. Edits are kept in this browser and can be exported as a file.
Per game: the two providers, their blend at the current slider, and your number (win % of the first-named team). A decided game is fixed and locked. Hand-edited games are kept exact in the field ensemble unless you tick “jitter edited games”.
Per leg: the share of alive opponents on each team. “Model (rest)” sends that share to the fitted behaviour model. Shares are renormalised over each opponent's legal teams, so prior picks stay legal. For the current leg, numbers that sum to the opponents alive are treated as exact counts. Legs without any entry use the fitted model (or the equilibrium at λ > 0).
One leg per line, 4: MIN 50, BAL 34, SEA 12, BUF 4; add MODEL 10 to send 10% to the fitted model. Applying replaces those legs' entries.
One field model is one opinion. The ensemble values this week's candidate paths against many sampled fields — each a joint draw of forecast error, provider blend, fitted-behaviour parameters (with their estimation covariance), field concentration, rationality λ and jitter around your ownership numbers — and reports, per first pick, the mean EV, its spread, how often it is the best pick and its mean regret. Runs in parallel across — background threads.
Run the analysis to see the fitted field model.
Tick “Alt-model sweep” and run to see how the week's ranking moves under alternative fitted field specifications and a ±25% concentration shock. The Field ensemble tab generalises this to many sampled fields.
One entry per line: ENTRY | Team, Team, Team. Remove eliminated entries; add each week's picks as they publish; then set “Current leg” above. Forecasts are the dated PoolGenius and ETR grids embedded in this page (see provenance); refresh them by regenerating the page from new captures.